The Index of Consumer Confidence based on the Conference Board's survey of Canadian households measures consumers’ levels of optimism regarding current economic conditions.
The Index of Consumer Confidence survey is based on four attitudinal questions. Data is collected on each respondent's age, sex, marital status, and geographic location of residence. The four questions are:
- Considering everything, would you say that your family is better or worse off financially than six months ago?
- Again, considering everything, do you think that your family will be better off, the same or worse off financially six months from now?
- How do you feel the job situation and overall employment will be in this community six months from now?
- Do you think that right now is a good or bad time for the average person to make a major outlay for items such as a home, car or other major item?
Data from 2002-2017 is available on a monthly basis, while data from 1972-2001 is available on a quarterly basis.
To construct the Index of Consumer Confidence, the percentages of positive and negative responses are calculated, by question, at the regional and national levels. Positive responses are those in which the respondent says his or her financial situation improved over the past six months or will improve over the next six months, that more jobs will be available over the near term, or that now is a good time to make a major purchase. Negative responses are defined as those in which a respondent reports a worsening of a household's financial situation over the previous six months, expects that his or her financial position will worsen or that the number of jobs will decline over the near term, or indicates that it is a bad time to make a major purchase.
The index is then derived using the following calculation for each question:
percentage of positive responses / (percentage of positive responses + percentage of negative response)
The index is the average of these values for all four questions, rebased so that 2014 = 100.
The index of consumer confidence is not seasonally adjusted. Periodically, the Conference Board tests the historical data to determine if seasonal patterns do exist, however, to date, there is insufficient evidence to conclude that seasonality is present.
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